Tensions are higher in the south Caucasus Armenia and Azerbaijan awaiting a war that involves burial Grounds ballistic missiles special forces and the other systems of a veterinarian at the heart of the hostilities is curable a region that is occupied by the armed forces of Armenia but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan after the 1994 Exodus of Africa’s division is the area has acquired an Armenian character
The place doesn’t have been ongoing for 27 years but no threat of progress has thus far been made the current war is that the result of diplomatic failure so which were the events that led to this point and then see how the hostilities are progressing children and get a discount on the premium version one of the most common practices of Soviet officers was gerrymandering boundaries setting up communities against one another according to the last 16 Durbar held in 1989 Armenians accounted for 77 % of the population in Nagorno-Karabakh well Azerbaijan is accounted for 22% however in the seventh Jason districts and rounding the Governor Garba roughly 95% of the population was at the other Bajani and the population of Nova Gora but was five times that of upper curable regardless of the demographics the two communities lived in peace during the Soviet era Armenians and otherwise on his friend’s colleagues neighbors but things started falling apart in the final years of the Soviet Union.
Armenia and territorial claims against other Bazaar at the tension xerox and the trust that have been painstakingly constructed over the decades collapsed within weeks shots were fired and insurgency to cold and in 1992 a full-scale war ignited the fighting was gruesome with war crimes being committed and cities been raised to the ground Army reinforces came out on top and in the process there at the clearance Azerbaijan is from the above and the surrounding Desire nearly 700 mm Azerbaijan is had to abandon their homes in Garba to make way for $150,000 Minions obviously this brief summary does not justice today history of the conflict so have a look at her previous report on this topic for more, in any case, a cease-fire was signed in 1994 and peace talks started between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia France and the United States acting as the primary Meda leaders.
Over the years numerous proposals were negotiated but the most feasible route map is known as the mother principles introduced in 2007 the Intel the following first the district surrounding Nagara Nagara Baja to return to us by Johnny control second Nagorno-Karabakh is granted and interests that is and provided with security guarantees and self governance third Akola is established to link Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh for the final stages of Nagorno-Karabakh is determined through a legally binding expression of wale V all internally displaced persons and refugees are granted the right to return to their former places of Residence and finally 6th International Security guarantees in the form of peacekeeping operations take hold across the region along the mother and formula presents The most feasible roadmap towards a peaceful resolution the exact terms of its principal has been a matter of rigorous interpretation and the negotiation the biggest this agreement is the status of my god new Garba event rejects Nagorno-Karabakh subordination to Baku and once guarantees of Independence before engaging in any significant concessions meaning of other Bazar verses to consider its territory and once a space settlement starting with the returned with occupied district adjacent to Nagaur.
Nagaur above the core legal issue is that Armenia insist on self determination to resolve the status of the Gora Gora but while Azerbaijan insist on maintaining its territorial integrity to combine the two is by granting self-determination within turtle integrity the pins and autonomy for the Governor curable with similar formula has been successfully implemented across Europe alone islands in Scandinavia acting as a point of inspiration but sceptics argue that Armenia and Azerbaijan and nothing like Finland and Sweden while supporters say that the formula is better than and conflict regardless in 2011 was proposed to start the principles with the return of azerbaijani districts 5527 areas were to be returned however Armenia did not Budge and the negotiations have remained at a deadlock since there were numerous attempts to revive the peace talks but much of it was the no avail in Armenia was that is ko hubby income deeply entrenched in the political landscape compromise it seemed was no longer on the table saw in the next few years instead of negotiating the armenians leadership in nagorno-karabakh incorporated the azerbaijani districts into its administration new provisional border Drone new roads were constructed and abandoned azerbaijani settlements were given arminian names meanwhile historical sites located in the azerbaijani districts were embedded on army Indian Bank announce a clear sign that
Armenia was not going to leave impoverishing Casali Armenians from beyond the Cockroaches were brought him to settle in the former Azerbaijani towns these dangerous Irreversible and provocative actions illustrate that Armenia was effectively and accessing the entirety of Garba including the Azerbaijani district surprisingly the peace talks remained paralyzed person genuine attempts to revive the negotiations but none of it worth political rhetoric became increasingly belligerent on both sides Azerbaijan wanted to take back its territories by force while Armenia present to take even more territories in the next war by 2020 the negotiations have been ongoing 27 minutes with nothing to show for single village or town had been returned to the other version control and domestic pressure from the hundreds of thousands of this place Azerbaijan is was mountain with waiting to work and armed conflict was inevitable and inmate October 2020 large-scale hostilities rocket along the line of contact however do not working with the current hostel it is the on within rules after engagement since kar above is without doubt or reserve ration recognised as part of Azerbaijan and since the Azerbaijan is are fighting Premier League and hostel forces within the cutoff battlespace.
The international borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have remained Lingerie free of violence with the work being restricted to get about the conflict gains a most complicated jio political flavour Rush Hour for example is a military alliance of Armenia and maintains in military base their so it was expected that the Russians would come to create of the alloy putting our has rejected to do so because the fighting is taking place not on the territory of Armenia but in karaba which belongs 2016 in legal terms Rashid cannot get involved as long as there is no danger to the Republic of Armenia that explains part of the reason why Russia has remained in different real reason is that wanted to test the new army Indian Prime Minister person for his entire version activities within Armenia since coming to power in 2018 class Indian government study leave replaced for Russian government officials with professor lawmakers in an effort to diminish armenians Reliance on Russia however is and diversion actions have read alarm Bells in the kremlin and the Russians have been looking to reverse the pro Western process interestingly the former President Kothari on who is a rifle of Russian and enjoys good relations with the national leadership is back in the political scene Saurashtra might be in for a change of leadership in 11 the final reason for rashes in differences
because of its relationship with other Bazar which has never been better in fact it is probably only neighbour of Rush Hour that maintains an independent foreign policy and yet it is not hostel to Russia the ground and once the Pramod Sach foreign policy among its neighbours not permission these three reasons International boundaries disapproval of Europeans policy approval of Baku is foreign conduct of the conditions for rashes involvement meaning for around the situation in 2008 the lemon traditionally Iran has a light with Armenia for fear of an assertive Azerbaijan the thing is roughly a quarter of France population is a snake azerbaijani who live in the north of the classroom to keep a watchful eye on secessionism within its borders around maintains an unwritten Alliance with earlier however since the start of the recent hostilities in Garba military equipment has been spotted being transported through Iran into Armenia the outside the other person is in Iran which has resulted in protest in major Indian cities as well as attacks on the border checkpoint with Iran and the growth connecting to since these events the Iranian have dialled back their open support for Armenia with am too easy social tensions in the Northern provinces that said doing nothing is no option either Azerbaijan operates a large fleet of Israeli drones and white revolution and maintains deep running political commercial and military ties with Israel succeed in the Iranian sphere that would gain a foothold in Agar Prashant possibly allowing for Israeli Military operations against Iran.
In the future in 30 things are less complicated turks and other Bazar is enjoy a special relationship on all fronts Azerbaijan 5 plans go across the Turkish countryside mutual investments are at an all-time high and there is deep rooted affinity of the public level however Turkey’s attitude to the Arabic complete I was traditionally been passive but this changed as recently as August 2021 the Armenia Prime Minister publicly held the surface treated and called for a new foreign policy that would Lake territorial claims on Turkey big mistake because this immediately turned Turkey into an active part of player much like russia a few weeks later Turkey would sell a large batch of unmanned aerial vehicles for the azerbaijani military now looking at things from a macro prospective the circle cases is a place where foreign policy is driven by the neighbouring power is Russia Turkey and Iran whenever the relationship between these three changes the results immediately effect Georgia Armenia and Azerbaijan with status code this rock that policymakers and back again the confidence to step beyond the comfort zone and pursue military objectives in Garba and that has been going in Olympic dance fever in 5 military games are evolving faster than we can produce a video on it so
here is a summary instead azerbaijani drones are operating with impunity over the car above Earth space special forces have taken strategic Heights while its regular troops of taken control of the sutton flag is exponentially widens barcos military actions including the ability to strike at the arteries of the reverse logistics on the other side things are not looking so good for Armenia it is using modern it doesn’t military vehicles are they and the number of casualties is surging the level of attraction is unsustainable and is rapidly diminishing armenia’s capacity for contractor for example at one point during the fighting Army enforces lost 33 X 36 trucks and dozens more vehicles within 48 hours with such heavy losses the backbone of the army and military is collapsing fast thus for accumulating losses amount well over 2 million dollars which will take care when a good decade to recover Azerbaijan likely has just as many human casualties but it has captured more military vehicles that it has lost if this is a war of attrition Azerbaijan has absolute or millions of the battlefield by the way these observations are not based on the official statements from either side but on visual conformations and jio locations by neutral parties as of this writing line of contract has shifted dramatically azerbaijani forces are close to having the International border with Armenia in the south and they can take the strategic Heights the north units of azerbaijan’s
self-propelled artillery gunshot down the luncheon corridor this would split Ameen forces him to and Joker eminent Ameen in units in Garhwa what happens next is a now what is certain is that the status quo no longer exist nor is it even a recipe for a peace settlement formula of the negotiations has changed there is still time to negotiate a diplomatic resolution example with the date of European councilors mechanisms can be created to ensure self-determination for the Armenian community within the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan a local government with sound law enforcement judges with his own programs for media education culture and Salon analytically the road ahead will be difficult and time but anything worthwhile is hard work there is enough room for both communities to 11 prices in Canada as it was in the past it’s not let yet for such an arrangement but time is running out of India host children from the chapter for approval of the work.