The US administration announces the share of withdrawal from Afghanistan hebdomadally. And it says it’ll be before the desired date. At this rate, it’s stated that the withdrawal will be completed in mid-July.
In fact, while doing this, it sends the sole aircraft carrier within the Pacific to support the withdrawal.
However, there’s no development that the withdrawn soldiers have returned to the homeland. According to our research, only a few are ready to return to their homeland. The US administration is deploying its troops to countries in Central Asia like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
With this move, the response of Russia and China to the fake withdrawal of the USA, which brought tensions to very high levels in Central Asia, are going to be very harsh. At present, Washington appears more focused on finding new bases to fly drones and station its military service than pursuing reconciliation within the war-torn country.
In the previous few months, the u. s. has approached central Asian countries for repositioning of its troops. These countries include Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and possibly Kyrgyzstan as well, as per media reports. Some of them had already housed the U.S. troops during the beginning of the Afghan war in 2001, but abruptly ended the deal almost a decade later. Interestingly, aside from Uzbekistan, these countries either border Russia, China or Iran. At the highest of it, Russia has its bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Tajikistan is exclusive in an exceedingly sense that it also reportedly has some Chinese security forces on its soil. For the US to be looking to line up bases in the neighbourhood may be a strange development for Moscow and Beijing. After all, it’s taken twenty years for the US to attempt to withdrawing forces from Afghanistan.
Even then, drones it seems may still hover above the country for surveillance. And it’s for this very reason that Russia is accelerating a parallel peace process. It is supporting inter-Afghan talks additionally as encouraging members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Russia, China, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and India) to support their peace move.
China also wants Washington to withdraw “responsibly”, as it fears that the spillover effect of utter chaos in Afghanistan may result in instability within the region, which is why Beijing is equally pursuing peace in coordination with Moscow and Islamabad. Serenko of the middle for the Study of recent Afghanistan said Russia is concerned that following the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, some or all of these troops may be redeployed in Central Asia — an area that is also a key focus of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
“Moscow considers this threat [of a U.S. redeployment] to be important and unacceptable and it’ll do everything it can to form sure there’s no American base within the region,” he said. The concern isn’t purely hypothetical. Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Biden administration is looking to reposition some of its forces from Afghanistan to either Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, citing U.S. officials.
Although the prospect of either country hosting a U.S. military base remains distant, Serenko warned that Russia could not afford to completely dismiss the possibility. He noted that the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan had provided the countries of Central Asia with a de facto “security umbrella” over the past 20 years, something they could be reluctant to provide up. “I could imagine some Central Asian governments agreeing to host a U.S. military base on their territories simply because working with the Americans is more familiar,” Serenko said.
“The Americans have shown that although they did not have much success battling the Taliban in Afghanistan, they are completely capable of providing security to the southern frontiers of Central Asia.” Further complicating matters for Moscow are swirling questions on the CSTO’s unity and effectiveness.
Last October, the CSTO declined to intervene within the war between alliance member Armenia and Azerbaijan over the break-away region of Nagorno-Karabakh, since the hostilities didn’t take place on Armenian soil.
Armenia would persist to lose the war and was forced to form territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. More recently, in late April, Tajik and Kyrgyz soldiers exchanged gunfire at the border following a water dispute by local residents. Although the conflict was quickly brought in restraint by the governments of both countries,
it left dozens killed, hundreds injured, and tens of thousands of Kyrgyz civilians displaced. Serenko told Nikkei that if Russia wanted to prevent the looks of U.S. military bases in Central Asia, then it needs to reassure its CSTO allies about its ability to reply to a possible crisis in Afghanistan.
“The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will raise the question to what extent the CSTO is an efficient and attractive bloc,” he said. “Moscow will have to demonstrate the advantages of CSTO membership, the importance of this project.” As for Pakistan, this volatile situation is a double edged sword. On one hand, India is being given more role in the region and on the opposite hand Dae’sh is gaining a position within the bordering provinces. Furthermore, Islamabad’s efforts for reconciliation are being reciprocated by unprecedented accusations from Kabul.
Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani has gone to extreme ends by appealing to even Germany to impose sanctions on Pakistan for not fully supporting his agenda. His provocative demands have come as a shock to all who had recently seen him praising the Pakistani leadership for facilitating the peace move. Ghani clearly wants to incite Pakistan and later blame it for the instability in Afghanistan.
As a matter of fact, he’s presiding over a country where the Taliban are seizing one district after another by laying siege for months. Can this entire inaction from the Afghan forces in defending their own areas of control be blamed on Islamabad? Certainly, not. In the end it seems that war is also inevitable in Afghanistan.