May 18, 2021

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Russia’s escalation at the Ukraine border: Show of force or a failed threat to the West?

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Russia's escalation at the Ukraine border
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Tanks missile systems and tens of thousands of troops facing ukraine in the north and the south built as a series of routine exercises

it was in fact one of the biggest mobilizations of russian forces in decades moscow was making no effort to hide it in any conflict situation mr putin tries to recall western counterparts that he can easily burn the planet then just a few weeks later

it was all over just as suddenly as it began russia’s defense ministry announced all troops would return to base and all this without an obvious outcom to its original military buildup so what exactly is russia doing why this huge show of force from vladimir putin let’s find out number one it’s about

ukraine it is about frustration in moscow with zelensky and the the expectations in moscow that he would make concessions but i do think

it’s also a test to see the reaction of the west and in particular the biden administration and just a way to uh remind people that russia is is here russia is uh militarily strong certainly compared to ukraine and and russia is in principle

willing to use a tools certainly there was no shortage of attention and demonstrative shows of respect for putin under biden’s predecessor donald trump

their ultimately fruitless summit in helsinki reminded many observers of 1970s cold war diplomacy rather than a meeting between the leader of a superpower and a country whose economy is more than ten times smaller when trump was elected that in moscow you know people were popping the champagne courts

And when biden was elected that that certainly didn’t happen at all and to get what he got out of trump who said that basically he trusts putin more than the u.s intelligence services this new u.s president is a veteran not only the obama administration but also decades on the senate foreign affairs committee and he soon struck a very different noted.

it was actually russia that forced nato to truly engage with ukraine by launching hostilities back in 2014 it’s absolutely clear that nato militaries started their deployments after 2015.

ukraine called up its reservists and troops and repeated mantra-like that they would not let themselves be provoked into shooting first

they were desperate not to give an excuse for russian military action many civilians in eastern ukraine had their cases packed to leave in a hurry if needed

meanwhile u.s legislators advocated to increase support for Ukraine’s military to 300 million dollars a year and crucially that support would now likely include lethal weapons, not just the defensive equipment previously provided something Ukraine has been pushing for years unsuccessfully European leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron who had previously tried to engage with Russia and mediate suddenly struck a more decisive tone Europe he said would not tolerate any new military action on Ukrainian territory crucially through Europe shied away from spelling out what price the Kremlin would pay for intervention in Ukraine and there was no promise talk construction of the Nordstrom 2 pipelines as many in Ukraine had hoped

vladimir putin’s eagerly awaited annual state of the nation address it had a lot of swagger for lawmakers but surprisingly little detail on the one issue occupying mines around the world

ukraine was barely mentioned next day russia’s defense ministry announced the end of the quote exercises saying that all forces would now return to base but what has this costly escalation actually achieved

it’s no doubt that all these attempts of uh bergey was very successful biden called by the suggested meeting so now who will say that mr putin is isolated dictator for god’s sake everybody wants to speak to him


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