May 10, 2021

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PUTIN, MERKEL, BIDEN and the pipeline of DISCORD

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PUTIN MERKEL BIDEN
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Vladimir Putin is not just any politician he’s the perfect character for a spy movie and today’s story has a lot of spy movie material in it today

A confrontation between Russia Germany and the united states a billion-dollar mega project and a person Alexei Navalny who could overturn the entire energy policy of a country as important as Germany.

Now i’m sure that many of you have asked yourself this question how much real

power does russia have remember that we

are talking about one of the largest

countries in the world but one which has

a smaller gdp than italy so

why is russia so important one reason is

natural gas take a look at this map

on this map you can see how half of

europe depends on russian gas

practically all of central europe has

become accustomed to buying almost all

its gas from its eastern neighbour

russian gas

is close and cheap this includes of

course germany which is 60 dependent on

russian gas for years

the european union has been looking for

alternatives to diversify gas however if

the facts are anything to go by the

trend is clear

germany intends to become even more

dependent on russia

nordstream 2 to complete first two

branches as soon as june 2021

world oil meet nordstream 2 a gas

pipeline that directly connects russia

with germany with this gigantic pipeline

germany will be able to guarantee the

supply of russian gas without any

problem the project has cost

9.5 billion euros and it is nearing

completion the question is

is germany really going to be able to

finish nordstrom 2 well

keep watching because this whole project

is triggering a serious dispute

a dispute between germany and the united

states and to a large extent you could

say that this project could be rumoured

by this gentleman that you see on screen

alexey navalny the most famous

anti-putin opponent in russia this man

is a real threat to putin so much so

that in the summer of 2020 he was poisoned with the notorious novichok and if you’ve been following visualpolitik for a while you’ll already know that novichok is a poison invented during

soviet times of course navalny is not the main perso responsible for this story by far but clearly the assassination attempt on his life has been a catalyst and you might be wondering but how much power does navalny have

why is germany so interested in buying gas from russia and why does the united states want to stop him today we’re going to answer these questions but first

let’s have a read at a bit of historthe flip side of denuclearization if

there is an anti-nuclear country part excellence

it is germany in fact one of the most

important political parties in this

country are the greens who were founded

to call for the closure of nuclear power

plants decades after their inception you

could say that they have succeeded in

getting their way in just a few years

germany has shut down almost all of its

reactors

to give you an idea in 2002 nuclear

power accounted for 19

of germany’s energy mix today in 2021 it

is around

3 and the plan is to reach zero percent

as soon as possible

however germany is also the largest

energy consumer in europe so by going

without nuclear power germany has to

produce more energy from other sources

well take a look at this graph

as you can see germany is becoming

increasingly green but it is still not

possible to rely 100 on green energy

sources

storing energy is very expensive and a

windmill or a solar panel only produces

energy when there is wind

or sunshine

the simplest is coal but it is also the

most polluting there is so what is the

only alternative left

exactly natural gas you could say that

natural gas is the least polluting

source of energy within the polluting

energies to give you an idea coal expels

820 tons of greenhouse gases into the

atmosphere for each gigawatt of energy

produced oil is about 720 tons gas

however is at 420 tons in other words it

pollutes half as much as coal to put it

another way we could say that in today’s

world

gas is the new oil and germany is proof

of this

in 1990 they produced 40 000 gigawatts

of power from gas

in 2020 they were producing more than 94

000 gigawatts

it is true that in relative terms gas

represents a smaller percentage of the

mix but don’t forget that germany’s

energy demand is increasing year by year

to give you an idea

germany currently consumes 90 bcms of

gas per year that is 90 billion cubic

meters of gas

per year well it is estimated that by

2034 it will be more than 110 bcms in

other words germany needs more and more

gas the question is

how do you get your hands on the extra

gas well let’s take a look at that right

now

from russia with love natural gas

travels in two different ways

through gas pipelines or by ship using

liquefied natural gas technology

in this case the gas is converted into a

liquid conveniently transported and

taken to the destination country once

there the liquefied gas is processed in

a plant to convert it back into gas the

problem with this technology is that it

is expensive

and requires at least one such plant to

process the gas and you may ask does

germany have such a plant well for the

moment

no it is true that there are projects to

build one but for the moment

all the gas comes through the pipelines

and 60 of this gas

comes from russia and take note because

they are not the only ones who buy gas

from this country look at this maark

as you can see other countries like

finland and romania depend

100 on russian gas and i know what many

of you are thinking

so what’s the problem there you go again

visualpolitik with your visceral hatred

towards russia don’t many countries in

the world buy gas and oil from much more

authoritarian countries yes you’re right

putin is by far not the biggest tyrant

selling natural resources to the rest of

the world but we also have to recognize

one thing putin is willing to use his

gas as a political weapon what’s more

it wouldn’t be the first time that he’s

done so

for example in 2006 he cut off gas going

to ukraine over a political dispute

three years later he did it again and

this time the cutoff also affected

germany

why you may ask what does ukraine have

to do with germany well look closely at

this other map

in this map

you can see that until 2011 almost all

that gas went through ukraine or belarus

in other words if the ukrainians run out

of gas

so do the germans so what is the most

pragmatic solution very simple

build a gas pipeline connecting russia

directly to germany a pipeline across

the baltic

well that was the nordstrom one project

which was completed in 2012. however

germany still needs more gas and it does

not want to go back to using the

pipelines passing through ukraine

and that’s how from the creators of

nordstrom 1 came nordstrom 2

revenge i don’t know what many of you

are thinking so what’s the problem in

the end

it doesn’t change anything like it or

not russia was already selling russian

gas to europe it did it before nordstrom

1 and before nordstrom 2. the only

difference was the pathway the gas

traveled yes

you’re right but there is a clear victim

in this story ukraine think about it if

russia can send their gas without

passing through ukraine they could cut

off ukraine’s supply without any

problems from one day to the next

ukraine would be at russia’s mercy and

all this explains why the first

countries to raise the alarm were all

the former communist republics

seven eu countries opposed nordstrom

you’re active

these seven countries include poland the

czech republic the baltics and in

general all the countries that once

belonged to the soviet orbit and that is

when angela merkel said ah look how i

tremble the ex-communist countries are

standing up to me go home and leave me

alone and that’s how in 2015 russian gas

company gazprom began construction of

the pipeline suddenly baltic sea was

once again filled with ships with cranes

designed to be able to deploy the

pipeline sections going across the sea

we are talking about one of the most

fascinating engineering projects ever to

be seen

a project that has already cost more

than 9.5 billion euros it seemed that no

one could stop it

and then comes the next player in our

story

pressure from the united states the

united states and germany have always

been great allies and this is not only

because they are both part of nato while

france has turned its back on the united

states on many fronts such as for

example

the iraq war germany has always gone

hand in hand with the united states in

foreign policy and that’s why this news

is so surprising

nordstrom 2 trump approves sanctions on

russia gas pipeline bbc

and i know what some of you are probably

thinking this must just be another

donald trump bluster right well nothing

of the sort

in fact these sanctions were passed in

congress by both democrats and

republicans there are many reasons why

the united states wants to prevent this

pipeline from being built at all costs

the first is purely geopolitical it is

in their interest to protect

ukraine which is an ally and they are

not interested in russia

in having so much bargaining power the

second is economic the united states

wants to sell its liquefied natural gas

to europe and that explains why these

first sanctions were enough for some

companies to abandon the project

2019 allseas which is a swiss offshore

pipeline construction company abandoned

nordstrom 2 to avoid sanctions however

for the time being no company has

received

any real economic punishment true the

united states approved the possibility

of imposing economic sanctions on all

companies involved in this project but

until then there was no such fierce

opposition to the pipeline

however everything changed in the summer

of 2020

french swedish labs confirmed nalvani

poisoned

with novochuck dw again alexey novanley

is perhaps vladimir putin’s greatest

political enemy novichok is a very

potent poison

used mainly by russian spies everything

points to this man having been poisoned

by people close to putin and although

navalny survived and has been treated in

a german hospital this news

changes everything suddenly france which

had no clear position on nordstrom 2 has

joined the club of countries opposed to

it before it was a question of pure

geopolitics now it is also a question of

ethics

it could be seen as a way to punish

putin for trying to assassinate his

political opponents

just as the assassination of khashoggi

has scuppered many of bin salman’s grand

projects in saudi arabia the attempted

assassination of navalny could scupper

vladimir putin’s grand energy project to

give you an idea

one of trump’s last measures before

leaving the white house was new economic

sanctions to stop the project

at the time of making this video more

than 18 companies had decided to abandon

the project

and the question the big question that

you may be asking now is what is joe

biden going to do

in principle biden is against the

pipeline but on the other hand he

doesn’t want to take on germany either

so what is his answer well nothing more

and nothing less than to take a stand

watch this space

us to sanction russian vessel building

nordstrom 2 gas pipeline in baltic sea

r-e-f-e-r-l in other words biden has

said that he will keep

trump sanctions in place but only for

russian companies the russian vessel in

question is called fortuna and it is one

of those construction ships i was

telling you about earlier a ship with

huge cranes that can deploy all sections

of pipeline offshore well both

this ship and all the others that help

it to build the pipeline will receive

economic sanctions are these measures

enough to stop the project to date

everything points to the fact that they

are not in fact days after these

sanctions against fortuna were announced

the ship returned to work as if nothing

had happened

at the time of making this video only

148 kilometers remains to be built

of the 1 230 kilometers that’s 764 miles

total length

in other words it seems almost

impossible that these timid sanctions

will kill the project however in

washington the republicans are ready to

put up a fight

ted cruz puts hold on biden’s cia pick

burns over nordstream 2 pipeline

reuters i promised you a spy story and

here it is ted cruz and other republican

senators have stood up

they have said that they will not

approve the appointment of the new cia

director until biden approves tougher

sanctions

and for sanctions to be effective they

would have to affect german companies as

well don’t forget

that if everything goes according to

plan almost the entire pipeline will be

completed by this summer in other words

if they really want to stop it they’re

gonna have to take drastic measures and

yes that would include sanctioning one

of their most important allies this

might seem like a minor story but we are

really talking about one of europe’s

great dilemmas on the one hand both

germany and the entire region have

enjoyed cheap natural gas for decades

nordstrom 2 would help european industry

become more competitive

on the other hand it would pose a threat

to ukraine a country of 44 million

people that has been in a terrible

crisis for years partly because of its

poor relations with russia so now the

question is over to you do you think

that nordstrom 2 is a good idea?

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